Keynotes
Watch the keynotes in 30 seconds
What to do in an uncertain, exponentially accelerating world?
Read the terrain. Think slowly. Act fast.
Every organisation already deals with uncertainty, but intuitively, without a vocabulary. This keynote gives it one: it separates what is already in motion from what is genuinely open, shows why acceleration pushes leaders into fast thinking exactly when slow thinking is needed, and how anticipation becomes a decision.
- A shared language for uncertainty
- Predetermined elements versus critical uncertainties
- Three questions to bring back to the next strategy meeting
For: Boards, leadership teams, strategy and risk functions. Formats: 45 min · 20 min · keynote + workshop. Languages: English, Portuguese.
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The 24 Megatrends Reshaping the World
Surfing the big waves.
Twenty-four durable, directional forces are reshaping the conditions in which every organisation operates: compute, climate, demography, geopolitics, trust and more. The failure is never ignorance; it is recognising the wave and changing nothing. The room reads the six families of change, sees where the waves collide, and votes on the six that matter most to its future.
- The IF map of 24 megatrends
- The five critical collisions
- A live picture of where the room is exposed and prepared
For: Executive teams, conferences, industry associations, public sector. Formats: 60 min · 30 min · 90 min interactive. Languages: English, Portuguese.
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From Scanning to Acting: AI-enabled anticipatory systems
Seeing more is not deciding better.
More than 40,000 signals and 3,000 forces of change: AI has already entered the foresight method itself. This keynote shows how to build living anticipatory systems that scan, sense and act; what machines can open, what only people can close, and why appropriation sits between anticipation and action.
- The scanning–sensing–acting loop
- Ten new ways foresight fails in the age of AI
- A human–agent protocol for decisions
For: Strategy, innovation, risk and intelligence teams; foresight practitioners. Formats: 45 min · keynote + workshop. Languages: English, Portuguese.
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The Foresight Journey: how an organisation reads its future to 2035
Foresight only matters when it changes a decision.
A complete foresight journey, live on stage: from futures literacy to the landscape of change (megatrends, weak signals, wildcards) and into a live strategic map, where the forces become strategic constellations, four scenarios, a North Star and the arenas where to play. The sector module is tailored to each audience.
- A full scan-to-strategy journey on your own sector
- Four scenarios to 2035
- A portfolio across three horizons
For: Leadership offsites, sector conferences, strategy kick-offs. Formats: 50–60 min · keynote + journey. Languages: English, Portuguese.
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The Speaker
Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
Paulo works where foresight meets strategy: helping boards, leadership teams and public institutions read long-term change and turn it into decisions. He founded IF Insight & Foresight, where he built Futures.360 and Mission Future(s), and co-founded The Long Game, a strategic imagineering studio.
His keynotes draw on 25+ years of practice across strategy, innovation and futures studies, and on his current research on AI and anticipation.
- World Economic Forum: consulting advisor in foresight and futures
- Dubai Future Foundation: consulting advisor in foresight and futures
- ISEG, University of Lisbon: Professor of Foresight, Strategy and Innovation for almost 20 years
- Founder of IF Insight & Foresight; co-founder of The Long Game, a strategic imagineering studio